Add Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to the list of forecaster urging oil demand to peak sooner rather than later.
The bank brought forward its forecast for peak oil demand in the transportation sector by one year to 2026, if not sooner, largely due to the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles. Overall crude consumption will keep expanding this decade due to jet fuel and petrochemicals, but growth will be at an “anemic” pace past 2025.
Goldman is most likely to redefine what the end of demand growth will be for oil. One of the most aggressive calls is from BP PLC, which said last year that the era of rising oil demand could already be over, when the international power body has taken a more conservative approach than BP, seeing a demand plateau since about 2030.
Recently, Wood Mackenzie Ltd. warned oil companies about the “serious” risks of not preparing for accelerated energy changes. Oil consumption will begin to decline by 2023 if governments take aggressive steps to cut greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Climate Agreement.